“Our analysis suggests that Apple will eventually sell the device at all carriers; however, there is a much greater probability that AT&T keeps exclusivity for another 12-18 months than investors realize,” Chaplin wrote. “We think this has profound impacts for Apple, the carriers and the other handset OEMs.”The bottom line consensus from Credit Suisse is that the probability AT&T will keep the exclusivity to the iPhone is 75%
“We conclude there is only a 50% probability that it (exclusivity) ends in 2010,” Chaplin wrote. “Next, we try to determine whether AT&T bids for another year of exclusivity if exclusivity does end in 2010. We conclude they would and they can afford to compensate Apple such that Apple would be economically indifferent. Our approach yields a 25% probability for this outcome. Taken together, we see a 75% probability that AT&T keeps exclusivity for another year.”This could bring a giant shift in smartphone consumers. Will the iPhone lovers stay with AT&T if this comes to fruition, just to keep their iPhone? If so this could swing a whole lot of those consumers that were patiently waiting on Verizon to get the famed iPhone and bring in a lot of new AT&T users. Or will we [iPhone user's] say to hell with AT&T the iPhone is not worth the headache of their crap service – and jump ship for a Droid phone or the Nexus One?
Personally if AT&T keeps the exclusive rights to the iPhone, I would definitely look to grab up a Droid or Nexus One. I am very fed up with the amount of dropped calls I get and lack of 3G coverage.
What say you readers? Would you stick with AT&T to keep your iPhone?
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